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Exercise Trishul 2025 Update: India kicked off its massive tri-service military exercise on October 30, 2025, near the Pakistan border in Gujarat’s Rann of Kutch and Sir Creek region. This 12-day drill, running until November 10, involves Rafale jets, T-90 tanks, and elite commandos testing joint operations. Pakistan responded with airspace closures and naval warnings, amid India Pakistan tensions 2025 and disputes over the hydrocarbon-rich Sir Creek estuary. Following Operation Sindoor in May, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh warned of a “decisive response” to any provocation. AI analysis estimates an 18% India attack Pakistan probability in the next six months.
Full Details on India’s Tri-Service Military Drill
Exercise Trishul 2025, codenamed “Mahagurjar,” is India’s largest war game since Operation Sindoor. It focuses on tri-service integration across Army, Navy, and Air Force in multi-domain scenarios near the Pakistan border.
- Duration and Location: October 30 to November 10, 2025; Rann of Kutch, Sir Creek (Gujarat), and Rajasthan deserts.
- Key Assets:
- Indian Air Force: Rafale fighters, Sukhoi Su-30 jets, drones.
- Indian Army: T-90 tanks, BrahMos missiles, Para (SF) commandos.
- Indian Navy: Frigates, INS Vikrant carrier, MARCOS units.
- Objectives: Validate PM Modi’s “JAI” doctrine—Jointness, Atmanirbharta (self-reliance), Innovation. Includes “Trinetra” counter-drone sub-exercise and amphibious landings.
A massive NOTAM reserves airspace up to 28,000 feet, signaling high-intensity simulations for Sir Creek dispute responses.
Pakistan’s Response to Exercise Trishul 2025
Pakistan issued urgent NOTAMs on October 25 and 28, shutting central/southern airspace and disrupting flights. By October 30, restrictions expanded nationwide.
- Naval Actions: Admiral Naveed Ashraf inspected Sir Creek posts; overlapping firing drills in Arabian Sea.
- Official Statements: FM Bilawal Bhutto vows “befitting reply”; Khawaja Asif calls it “war mongering.”
- Intelligence Claims: Pakistan building cantonments/airstrips in disputed Sir Creek, per Indian reports.
This mirrors post-Balakot (2019) and Sindoor escalations, raising India Pakistan war chances 2025.
Timeline of India-Pakistan Escalations 2025
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| April 22 | Pahalgam terror attack (26 killed) |
| May 7-10 | Operation Sindoor strikes |
| May 10 | U.S. ceasefire |
| October 25 | Pakistan NOTAMs |
| October 30 | Trishul launch; Rajnath warning |
Why This Border Flashpoint Matters
The 96-km Sir Creek estuary divides Gujarat and Sindh, with vast oil/gas potential. Both claim it based on 1914 maps; unresolved since 1965 war.
- Current Issues: Pakistan’s alleged infrastructure; India’s Indus Waters Treaty suspension.
- Strategic Value: Controls Arabian Sea access; key for CPEC routes.
Exercise Trishul simulates incursions here, testing India military readiness.
AI Probability: 18% Chance India Attacks Pakistan
Grok (xAI) assesses 18% India attack Pakistan probability (next 6 months) for significant action (100+ casualties):
- Base Risk: 10% from LoC firing.
- Triggers (+8%): Terror incident, Sir Creek buildup.
- Deterrents (-10%): Nuclear arsenal, U.S./China mediation, $100B+ economic hit.
Nuclear escalation: ~3-5%. Historical data: 80% crises de-escalate (Lowy Institute).
Risk Factors Table
| Factor | Impact on Probability |
|---|---|
| Major Terror Attack | +10% |
| Successful Diplomacy | -8% |
| Nuclear Deterrence | -12% |
| Economic Costs | -5% |
Nuclear Risks and Regional Stability
Trishul boosts India’s theater commands but strains Pakistan’s economy (IMF-dependent).
- External Roles: U.S. pushes DGMO hotline; China arms Pakistan (J-10 jets).
- Fallout Risks: Refugee crisis, trade halt along 3,323-km border.
Experts warn of miscalculation in this nuclear flashpoint.
How to De-Escalate India-Pakistan Tensions
- Bilateral Talks: Revive Sir Creek working group.
- Multilateral Aid: SCO/Qatar mediation.
- CBMs: Joint patrols, water-sharing.
Focus on “peace through strength” without provocation.
Exercise Trishul 2025 Signals Strength, Not War
At 18% war risk, Trishul deters rather than invites conflict. India-Pakistan dialogue on Sir Creek dispute and terrorism is crucial to prevent 2025 escalation. Monitor official updates for Exercise Trishul live developments.
Meta Description: Exercise Trishul 2025 near Pakistan border sparks tensions; Pakistan airspace shutdown, Rajnath warning. AI: 18% India attack Pakistan probability amid Sir Creek dispute and Operation Sindoor fallout.
References
- India Today: India military exercise Trishul: The Rann of Kutch and Sir Creek dispute with Pakistan
- Firstpost: Operation Trishul: What we know about military exercise which has left Pakistan rattled
- India Today: Pakistan—Iraq issues Notam as India gears up for tri-services Trishul exercise along border
- India Today: After Op Sindoor, India launches mega tri-service exercise Trishul near Pak border
- Asia Times: India’s Exercise Trishul a needless escalation at a fragile time
- PTC News: India launches exercise ‘Trishul’ near Pak border
- News18: ‘Panic & Precaution’: Pakistan Issues Second NOTAM Amid India’s ‘Trishul 2025’ Exercise
- Nation: Pakistan closes parts of airspace near India ahead of Indian Military exercise Trishul 2025
- India Today: Pakistan issues naval warning as India begins tri-services exercise Trishul near Sir Creek
- News18: India’s Trishul, Rajnath’s Statement Rattle Pakistan
