In a stark escalation of long-simmering tensions, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif issued a severe ultimatum to the Afghan Taliban on October 29, 2025, threatening “open war” unless Kabul immediately curbs cross-border terrorism emanating from Afghan soil. Speaking after the collapse of mediated talks in Istanbul, Asif declared that Pakistan has exhausted diplomatic patience, accusing the Taliban regime of harboring groups like the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) that have launched over 482 attacks in 2025 alone, claiming 558 lives. This confrontation along the disputed Durand Line, a 2,640-kilometer border, risks plunging South Asia into broader instability, reviving fears of a proxy conflict fueled by external actors including India and regional powers.

Historical Context of Pakistan-Afghanistan Border Tensions

The Durand Line, drawn by British colonial authorities in 1893, remains a flashpoint, unrecognized by Afghanistan and a conduit for militancy. Pakistan’s support for the Taliban during the 1990s and its post-2001 double game—harboring insurgents while combating them—sowed distrust. The Taliban’s 2021 return to power initially raised hopes for cooperation, but TTP resurgence, emboldened by safe havens in Afghanistan, has reversed gains, making 2025 the deadliest year for terrorism in Pakistan since 2014, per the Global Terrorism Index.

Key Escalations Leading to Asif’s Warning

• October 9-10, 2025: Pakistan conducts airstrikes in Kabul, Khost, Jalalabad, and Paktika, targeting TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud (who survived).
• October 11-12: Taliban retaliates with attacks on Pakistani posts along the Durand Line, killing five soldiers and injuring seven.
• October 19: Qatar-mediated ceasefire in Doha, where Taliban Defence Minister Mullah Yaqoob pledges to prevent Afghan soil from being used against neighbors.
• October 25-29: Istanbul talks collapse over TTP sanctuaries; Asif announces “failure means open war.”

These events underscore Pakistan’s frustration, with Asif labeling Afghanistan the “number one enemy” and vowing to “obliterate” the regime if needed.

Details of Asif’s Ultimatum and Taliban’s Response

Addressing the National Assembly, Asif stated, “Enough is enough. We are running out of patience… Those who shelter or facilitate terrorists will face consequences.” He proposed sending a high-level delegation to Kabul to reiterate demands, emphasizing that Pakistan’s “full arsenal” could easily overpower the Taliban. The minister accused Kabul of acting as an “Indian proxy,” referencing Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s recent New Delhi visit as a diplomatic affront.

The Taliban, through spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid, rejected the threats, insisting Afghan soil “will not be allowed to be used against any other country.” Defence Minister Mullah Yaqoob echoed this, claiming states misuse the “terrorism” label politically. Despite the Doha truce, clashes persisted, including TTP raids on October 30 that killed deputy leader Qari Amjad near Bajaur.

Core Demands and Sticking Points

• Pakistan’s Position: Immediate dismantlement of TTP bases; extradition of leaders; enforcement of Durand Line fencing.
• Taliban’s Stance: Views TTP as “ideological brothers” who aided their victory; demands recognition of sovereignty and cessation of Pakistani incursions.
• External Factors: Pakistan blames India for funding TTP; Taliban alleges U.S./NATO remnants stoke unrest.

Geopolitical Implications

This standoff risks a vicious cycle of airstrikes and incursions, potentially drawing in Iran, China (via CPEC), and India. Pakistan’s 10,347 terror attacks since 2021 have killed 3,844, straining its economy and military. A full conflict could displace millions, disrupt trade routes, and exacerbate Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis, already displacing 6.7 million.

Potential Outcomes and Risks

• Escalation Scenario: Pakistani “precision” strikes expand, prompting Taliban retaliation and refugee surges.
• Diplomatic Path: Turkey/Qatar mediation revives, possibly tying to broader regional forums like the SCO.
• Humanitarian Fallout: Increased TTP attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa/Balochistan; Durand Line closures worsen Afghan refugee plight in Pakistan.

Analysts like Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud warn of ideological entanglements complicating enforcement.

International Response and Pathways to De-escalation

Global powers urge restraint: The UN’s Rosemary DiCarlo called for dialogue to prevent “catastrophic spillover.” Qatar and Turkey, fresh from Doha success, propose resumed talks, while the U.S. backs Pakistan’s counter-terrorism but cautions against unilateral action. China, invested in Afghan stability, could leverage its Taliban ties.

Prospects hinge on verifiable TTP crackdowns and Durand Line demilitarization. Asif’s rhetoric, while forceful, signals a “last-ditch push,” per Al Jazeera sources.

In conclusion, Asif’s ultimatum epitomizes the fragile Pakistan-Afghanistan dynamic, where historical grievances and terrorism intersect perilously. Sustained multilateral engagement is imperative to forge a ceasefire that addresses root causes, averting a war neither fragile state can afford. For ongoing analysis of South Asian security and Taliban dynamics, subscribe to our newsletter.

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References

• Republic World: Afghan-Pak Conflict: An Unending Crisis On The Durand
• NewsX: Pakistan Warns Of Open War With Afghanistan
• India.com: Pakistan defence minister calls Afghanistan ‘number one enemy’
• India Today: Pakistan defence minister Khawaja Asif says All Afghans must return home
• Al Jazeera: What we know about Pakistan-Afghanistan ceasefire
• Wikipedia: Afghanistan–Pakistan clashes (2024–present)
• Reuters: Pakistan threatens to ‘obliterate’ Taliban after peace talks fail
• News24: ‘Enough Is Enough’: Pak Defence Minister Khawaja Asif Warns Afghanistan
• Al Jazeera: ‘Last-ditch push’: Pakistan-Afghanistan talks falter
• Wikipedia: 2025 Afghanistan–Pakistan conflict