Israeli Government Faces Existential Crisis as Coalition Partners Withdraw Support

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July 17, 2025 – Jerusalem, Israel

The government of Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu is grappling with an incredibly political crisis, as two key coalition partners who are ultra-Orthodox, Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) have pulled out of significant funds, which threatens the stability of coalition. They were announced on July 16th 15 and 16, 2025 respectively, these retractions stem from a contentious conscription law that leaves Israel with a weak majority in parliament and raising the possibility of holding elections before the end of the year.

Shas and UTJ Departures Undermine Coalition Stability

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On the 16th of July, 2025 Shas with 10 of the seats available within the 120-member Knesset announced the resignation of its ministers from government, which reduced the coalition’s capacity to 50 seats, which is far below the 61 needed for a stable majority. Shas is a key all-time ally to Netanyahu’s Likud party, the departure of Shas is a major loss. On the 15th of July, UTJ, with 7 seats, pulled out of the cabinet because of disagreements about the proposed law on military conscription. While UTJ isn’t fully out of the coalition, it’s partial withdrawal has left the coalition with a fragile majority of 61 seats, heavily dependent on the co-operation of the remaining members.

Military Conscription Law Sparks Coalition Rift

The primary issue behind the crisis is a planned law that requires mandatory military duty for extremist (Haredi) men who are members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). For a long time, Haredi communities have been exempted from compulsory service in order in order to focus on religious studies this policy has been a source of contention for groups of nationalist and secularist who consider it unfair. The policy was prompted by a 2017 Supreme Court ruling that declared previously granted exemptions unconstitutional, new law seeks to gradually incorporate Haredi males into the IDF with a few concessions. The issue is that Shas as well as UTJ have been against the idea, seeing the law as a threat to their faith and identity. Shas president Aryeh Deri declared on the 16th of July, 2025that “We cannot support a government that undermines the sanctity of Torah study.” UTJ leaders have also demanded significant modifications, which puts Netanyahu in a difficult situation.

Fragile Majority Threatens Government Collapse

The withdrawals have led to the worst crises of Netanyahu’s current administration and has left the coalition susceptible to further defections. Parties like National Unity (8 seats) or Otzma Yehudit (6 seats) could use the crisis to demand concessions or join with forces of the opposition, potentially leading to a no-confidence vote. The Knesset’s planned three-month recess that begins on 27 July 2025 allows for a short respite and delays immediate challenges to the parliamentary system. But, it is crucial for Netanyahu to reach compromises, especially on the law on conscription, in order to avoid further loss of support. If he fails to negotiate a deal, it could result in an early election which is a scenario Netanyahu would prefer to avoid due to his popularity rating, which is around 35% according to recent polls.

Opposition Capitalizes on Political Instability

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Opposition leader Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition group Yesh Atid has seized on this situation to call for snap elections and decrying Netanyahu to put the national interest ahead of his political survival.”This government is immobilized by its internal contradictions,” Lapid declared on the 16th of July 2025. The reports also suggest that Gideon Sa’ar, a member of the coalition, may think about joining the opposition party, a move which could speed up the demise of the government. Should the coalition fall apart early elections could alter Israel’s political landscape, possibly increasing the strength of opposition parties such as Yesh Atid or National Unity. The possibility of such an event has increased the political game as parties prepare themselves to compete in elections.

Domestic and Regional Pressures Compound Crisis

The coalition crisis is accompanied by major problems. Netanyahu’s handling of ceasefires and hostage talks between Israel and Hamas within Gaza has drawn criticism as critics claim that he has delayed negotiations for political reasons. A New York Times report on July 11, 2025 said that his actions were motivated by politics which he has denied. Protests by the public and the pressure of hostage families have increased, further eroding the support of his supporters. In addition the ongoing corruption trial in Israel that was highlighted by the appearance of U.S.Ambassador Mike Huckabee in the United States on the 16th of July 2025, and the call from Trump Administration officials to end the process. Trump administration officials have urged to stop the process has sparked debates about the role on the administration by other sources. The public’s opinion on platforms such as X remains divided and a few people lauding Netanyahu’s security policy and others claiming his leadership is harmful.

Path Forward

The stability of the coalition rests on the ability of Netanyahu to negotiate an agreement over the law of conscription during the Knesset recess. If he fails to achieve this, it could result in further disaffections which could lead to an election in the near future. A weaker regional government could affect Israel’s negotiations with Hamas as well as its responses towards threat from Iran or Hezbollah. As Israel faces this political turmoil its outcome could significantly affect its stability in the country as well as its regional standing.